2009 Marathon and State of the Sport Reports

Part I - Running Industry Expected to Place Well in U.S. Recession Marathon

The results are in. Considering that just about every running related stat is up, Americans have provided evidence with their feet and credit cards that running – as an industry, a fitness activity and a competitive sport – is indeed recession resistant.

Modest Declines Seen by Majority of Sport Related Companies

The 2008 wholesale figures for U.S. sporting goods provided by the Sporting Goods Manufacturers Association (SGMA) are not bad considering that was a year when the stock market dropped 33.8%.  Compared to 2007, the total wholesale dollars shipped were down only 3.2% to $66.3 billion, the sports apparel component was down 2% to $28.9 billion and athletic footwear shipments dropped 4.6% to $12.4 billion. NSGA’s “Sporting Goods Market Report Historical Data” offers a similar view of recent declines and provides a 28-year context. In 1998, sporting goods retail sales totaled $69.83 billion dollars in the U.S. After peaking in 2007 at $91.4 billion, NSGA’s estimate decreased to $79.6 billion in 2008 and is projected at $72.1 billion for 2009. Footwear sales also peaked in 2007 but is predicted to stay at the same level for 2009. Sports apparel, on the other hand, has been flat for the last five years and in 2008 with $10.6 billion in sales, was considerably lower than the 1998 total of $12.85 billion. 

But Running Products and Services Fared Well

In contrast to the overall sports industry, the growth seen in many areas of the running world from shoe sales to road race participation was impressive, especially in the context of the economy. NSGA’s “Sporting Goods Market in 2009” reports that retail sales dollars of the running/jogging category of footwear were up 5% (to $2.3 billion), numbers of running shoe units were up 2% and running apparel increased 1%. The larger corporations like Nike, adidas and Finish Line had their financial difficulties, but it was not due to their running products declining in popularity. And in the case of Runner’s World magazine which saw a decline of 0.8% in dollars and 6% in number of pages after strong growth in recent years, significant ad revenue disappeared from non-running entities like the auto industry.

Table 1: Jogging & Running Footwear Sales in U.S. (NSGA - 1)

Running Specialty Stores

The 713 U.S. running specialty stores represented  by Leisure Trends Group retail sales tracking reported $649 million (a 5% increase) in sales for the rolling year ending in March of 2009. This compares very favorably to other industries tracked for the same time period – all outdoor retail (up 1%), specialty outdoor (down 4%), all snow retail (down 4%) and snow specialty (down 8%). The heart of the running specialty stores – running shoes – showed an even healthier record of 10% growth for the 12-months ending in March 2009. The apparel sales were down 12.3% for the same period. Running specialty stores are helped by the relatively small percent of apparel (16%) compared to shoes (70%). The best sellers were stability road running shoes, casual shoes, bra tops, insoles and socks. Leisure Trends predicts possible trouble ahead, because stores have decreased inventory.

Millions of Americans Running Away from Troubles

One reason the industry is healthy is that there has been a parallel increase in the running population. NSGA estimates that the total running population in 2008 was 35,904,000 – an increase of 18.2% over 2007! The Outdoor Industry’s estimate for number of U.S. trail runners in 2008 was 4,857,000, an increase of 15.2%.

Table 2: U.S. Running Participation Numbers for 2008

Stories with headlines like “Sales of Marathon Goods Still Strong” (by Shira Springer, Boston Globe, April 20, 2009), “Running for Lean Times” (by Cameron Stracher, Wall Street Journal, May 19, 2009) and “Fast Times for Jobless Runners” (by Reed Albergotti, wsj.com, July 8, 2009), have helped promote the cost effective physical and mental health benefits of running to new audiences. The authors have observed strong interest in running products, event participation and training in spite and in some cases a result of the recession. Running is described by Albergotti as a way for the unemployed to run through their stress, get in shape with more regular training time and train for a cause that makes them feel that they can still be productive.

Upcoming State of the Sport 2009 reports will examine runner demographics, trends in race participation and the Largest Races in the world and U.S.

Sources for Part I

SGMA = Sporting Goods Manufacturers Association. = 2008 SGMA Sports Research Partnership (with other trade groups - National Golf Foundation, SnowSports Industries, Tennis Industry Association and Outdoor Industry). Online survey was given sample of 40,174 people who represent the U.S. population. For more information, go to: SGMA.com

NSGA = National Sporting Goods Association. (1) = “NSGA Sporting Goods Market in 2009” and the Sporting Goods Market with Historical Data CD, based on retail sales in the U.S. projected from consumer interviews, (2) = NSGA Sports Participation in 2008, Series I. To obtain information on any of the NSGA products and services, email: info@nsga.org, phone (847) 296-6742 or go to: NSGA.org

OIF = Outdoor Industry Foundation. “Outdoor Recreation Participation 2009 Topline Report”. For more information visit www.outdoorfoundation.org.

Leisure Trends = Running Specialty Store Retail Sales Tracking as reviewed in webinar “How Healthy is Running Specialty?” by Elisabeth Stahura, Retail Analyst. For more information go to www.leisuretrends.com. To participate in the specialty store panel and have access to complete details during the year, contact Greg Shoenfeld at gshoenfeld@leisuretrends.com.

RunningUSA.org = State of the Sport reports, many types of running data and lists of the Largest Races from past years can be found on RunningUSA.org in the "Statistics" section. For other questions about running trends and demographics, contact Ryan Lamppa [ryan@runningusa.org].

Part II - U.S. Runner Demographics

The relatively new sport of road running which had a female / male ratio of 28 / 72 for race participants just fifteen years ago has evolved to mirror the overall U.S. population in more recent years. Today, buyers of running shoes, finishers in running events and more casual runners who run once or twice a week have about a 50 / 50 gender split.

Table 1: Gender Distribution in Running Populations - Female% / Male%

As Running USA has noted in the past, participants in the sport and activity of running look like the typical extended American family with a better than average income and education. The son runs in recess, the daughter runs to stay in shape in between college courses, the father runs to relieve stress and to improve his best time, the mother runs to lose weight and raise money for her favorite charity and the grandfather enjoys his daily jog around the neighborhood and the annual turkey trot. Thus running can be a very flexible vehicle for marketing – representing the entire population or just one member of the ”family” depending on the desired objectives.

Running Magazine Subscribers: Affluent and Well Educated
Runner’s World Media Group (RWMG) has surveyed the subscribers of Runner’s World magazine (RW) and published useful runner demographics for more than twenty years. In 2008, they also surveyed the slightly more competitive population of Running Times (RT). Excerpts from the 2008 Subscriber Study are provided below. These demographics provide a view of typical road runners as opposed to the more general population of runners and joggers described by NSGA. The latter include many young people who run as part of their regular school day.

Table 2: Runner Profile Highlights from 2008 Runner’s World Subscriber Study [and Running Times]

Gender: Women 51.4% / Men 48.6% [RT: Women 35.1% / Men 64.9%]

Median Age: 40.6 years old [43.8 years]

College Educated: 93.5% [93.0%]

Graduated College+: 74% [72.8%]

Married: 68% [70.9%]

Number of people in household: 2.7 people [2.8 people]

Individual employment income before taxes, mean average: $75,200 [$81,900]

Household employment income before taxes, mean average: $133,000 [$145,000]

Household net worth, mean average: $785,000 [$1,033,000]

From 2008 Runner's World and Running Times Subscriber Study, Erdos and Morgan

Age Group Distribution in Running Populations

As the table below illustrates, there has been no significant change in the average age of running event finishers compiled by Running USA from 2003 to 2008. The typical male race participant in 2008 was 38 years old and about 3 years older than the typical female. The difference was closer to 3.5 years in previous years and the age of the males seems to be decreasing, but it will take another year or two to see if this is a meaningful trend. The modest increase in female Junior runners (19 years or younger) seen in the previous 5 or 6 years has leveled off and was replaced by growth in the younger male segment in 2008.

Table 3: Average Age (Mean) in Running Populations

The trend toward a slightly younger running event population is also seen in the breakdown of Juniors, Open and Masters runners (40 years and over) from 2002 to 2008 (see Table 4). The percent of females that are masters has decreased from 35.6% to 34% during the seven years whereas the percent of male masters has decreased from 47.3% to 45%. The senior men and women (60 years+) remain a small group with only 6.1% and 2.9% respectively of their gender.

Table 4: Age Group Distribution of Timed Road Race Finishers (Running USA)

Look for State of the Sport Part III Growth Trends in Road Races and Part IV Largest Races in upcoming Running USA wires.

Sources for Part II

Active.com = The Active Network provided Running USA with comprehensive running event results to use in Running USA’s data compilation and analysis for this report. An event calendar and complete race results for many U.S. events can be found on Active.com.

NSGA = National Sporting Goods Association. NSGA Sports Participation in 2003, 2005 and 2006 and 2008 Series I. (2) = NSGA Sporting Goods Market in 1993, 1998, 2002, 2003, 2005, 2006 and 2008. To obtain information on any of the NSGA products and services email [info@nsga.org], phone (847) 296-6742 or go to NSGA.org.

Running USA and its RRIC (Road Running Information Center) compile running statistics and publish the annual Marathon and State of the Sport reports. Many types of running data and lists of the Largest Races from past years can be found on RunningUSA.org in the “Statistics” section. All running event data comes from comprehensive results which in the last 3 years have been collected by Active.com. In even numbered years, Running USA publishes results of the National Runner Survey which profiles the U.S. active road running population. For other questions about running trends and demographics, contact Media Director Ryan Lamppa [ryan@runningusa.org] or Research Director Tracy Yoder [tracy@runningusa.org].

RWMG = Runner’s World Media Group is the leading authority on running information with more than 50 million touch points worldwide. They publish both Runner's World and Running Times magazines, serve the world's largest online running community at www.runnersworld.com and www.runningtimes.com, and deliver custom multi-media events nationwide. Subscriber highlights are from the 2008 Runner’s World Subscriber Study conducted by Erdos and Morgan. For more information, contact Sue Hartman, Associate Publisher/Marketing at [sue.hartman@rodale.com] or (610) 967-8316.

Part III - U.S. Road Race Trends

Road running defies the recession with another record year of participation

Despite a recession year, road running events continued to grow across the vast majority of distances in 2008 with a total of 9.4 million estimated finishers, a 6% increase from 2007, and a record number of finishers in the U.S. See Table 1 below. The 5K is still the dominant distance, accounting for 38% of all event finishers and more than 50% of all events, but the half-marathon continues to lead the pack with another year of double digit growth. Since 2003, the half-marathon has been the fastest growing road race distance in the U.S. and for three consecutive years, the total number of 13.1 mile finishers has grown by 10% or more in this country. For 2008, Running USA reports approximately 900,000 half-marathon finishers (a new high), an increase of 665,000 finishers since 1987 (235,000). It is expected that the half-marathon will increase steadily as women continue to dominate the 13.1 mile field at 56% and the distance continues to gain popularity among males and females, ranking #1 as ‘favorite race distance,’ according to Running USA’s National Runner Survey (2007).

Table 1: 2008 U.S. Road Running Event Finishers

*Half-Marathon finisher totals adjusted based on a larger sample size compared to previous years. Due to the adjustment, the percentage change from 2007 to 2008 is reflective of comparing the same races for the two years as opposed to the growth in finishers from the year prior. A race by race comparison for 2007 and 2008 revealed a 13% growth for the half-marathon.

Source: Running USA RRIC

The following three tables provide an overview of the number of events and certified courses reported for 2008 standard road race distances.

Table 2: 2008 U.S. Running Events Summary

*Half-Marathon event totals adjusted based on a larger sample size compared to previous years. Due to the adjustment, the percentage change from 2007 to 2008 is reflective of comparing the number of events based upon the new results data, as opposed to the number of events reported the year prior.

Source: Running USA RRIC

Table 3: USATF Active Certified Road Courses (2007 – 2008)

Source: USA Track & Field

Table 4: Total USATF Active Certified Road Courses (as of June 2009)
Course certification expires after 10 years

Source: USA Track & Field

Sources for Part III Running USA = State of the Sport reports, many types of running data and lists of the Largest Races from past years can be found on RunningUSA.org in the "Statistics" section. For other questions about running trends and demographics, contact Media Director Ryan Lamppa [ryan@runningusa.org] or Research Director Tracy Yoder [tracy@runningusa.org] USATF = USA Track & Field is the governing body for track and field, race walking and long distance running in the U.S. For information on certified courses, go to: www.usatf.org/events/courses/search